The Association of Indonesian Energy, Mineral, and Coal Suppliers (Aspebindo) sees an opportunity to diversify its export market after demands from major consumer countries like China and India are slowing down. Aspebindo’s Vice Chair Fathul Nugroho said that its priority lies in markets outside of China, such as the ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia.

This comes as there is a limited coal supply in several Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, which is expecting to increase its annual coal imports by 5-7 percent until 2030 to support its industrialization pledge.

In addition to ASEAN, Fathul also sees potential in South Asian countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan, which have the potential to absorb medium- to low-calorie coal for power plants. He mentioned that Bangladesh is looking for an additional 10 million tons of coal per year to cover the electricity supply deficit.

New Markets, New Challenges

Indonesia is expected to face new roadblocks in maintaining and entering new markets for coal exports, one of which is price competition, especially with Russia and Mongolia.

Both countries, Fathul explained, produce coal with higher calorie content for the Chinese market. Meanwhile, for India, Indonesia faces competition in South African coal.

Fathul also mentioned that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that coal exports in the first semester this year reached 185.98 million tons, a 6.13 percent drop compared to the same period the previous year. He attributed the decrease to the contraction in demand from China, which is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. China can produce around 4.76 billion tons of coal and consumed approximately 4.9 to 5.2 billion tons domestically in 2024, thus still importing around 500 million tons in the same year.

Despite the large demand, Fathul is optimistic that China will continue to require coal imports, including from Indonesia, to maintain energy reserves and obtain coal at a cheaper price in the international market. However, the drop in demand could also reduce the contribution of the coal sector to economic growth.

The impact of reduced demand from major importing countries also affects international coal prices. Furthermore, Indonesia’s export volume will decline, affecting revenue and profits for companies and the country. “Therefore, maintaining the investment climate and exploring new global markets is a necessity,” Fathul concluded.