China’s most active coking coal futures surged over 5% on July 02, 2025, as global demand for thermal coal remained robust. This significant increase follows a period of decline in Asian seaborne coal imports, particularly from major importers such as China and India, who have been boosting domestic supply and stockpiles. According to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler and cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell, Asian seaborne coal imports fell by 7.8% in July compared to July 2024 [1].

The rebound in Japanese and South Korean purchases in July did not fully offset the declines in top importers China and India, which have been increasing domestic production and stockpiles. China’s coal imports in June reached their lowest volumes in nearly two and a half years, with imports totaling 33.04 million metric tons, down by 26% from a year earlier and 8% compared to May [1].

The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association estimates that Chinese coal purchases for the full year 2025 could be between 50 million tons and 100 million tons lower than in 2024, highlighting the impact of domestic production and weaker demand [1].

In India, the push to boost domestic coal production and reduce reliance on imported coal has been a key driver of the import decline. The increase in domestic supply and the focus on reducing imports have led to a significant decrease in coal imports from other countries, including China. This trend is likely to continue, as both countries prioritize self-sufficiency and domestic production to meet their energy needs.

The rise in coking coal futures can be attributed to several factors, including the ongoing global energy crisis, which has led to increased demand for thermal coal. Additionally, the recent increase in prices for natural gas and other energy sources has made coal a more attractive option for power generation. The global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have also contributed to the volatility in the energy markets, leading to increased demand for coal.

Despite the recent decline in imports, the global demand for coal remains strong, and the market is expected to continue to see price fluctuations in the coming months. Investors and financial professionals should closely monitor the developments in the energy sector and the geopolitical landscape, as these factors are likely to have a significant impact on the coal market.