The seaborne coal trade is throwing up an increasingly important paradox for dry bulk shipping: headline demand from China is weakening, but changes in where the coal comes from are helping to keep vessel demand surprisingly resilient.
Recent research from Greece’s Ursa Shipbrokers notes that total Chinese coal imports actually rose 3.4% year-on-year to 310.2m tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, but ocean coal discharges fell 3.7% to 221.3m tonnes.
The explanation lies increasingly on land. Mongolia supplied 78.4m tonnes, equivalent to more than a quarter of China’s coal imports, volumes that generate no employment for bulk carriers. Steam coal arriving by sea fell 6.9% to 188.3m tonnes, while seaborne coking coal bucked the trend, climbing 31.1% to 29m tonnes.
Matching last year’s annual seaborne total would now require China to import around 156m tonnes between September and December, roughly 6% more than during the corresponding period of 2025.
Signal Research is similarly cautious. Its central forecast puts China’s full-year seaborne thermal coal imports at 270m-290m tonnes, implying arrivals of around 21m-26m tonnes per month for the remainder of the year, versus 25.3m tonnes in July and August.
Yet the effect on shipping is proving less straightforward. Signal calculated that panamaxes carried 132.7m tonnes of Chinese seaborne thermal coal in January-August, up 1.9% year-on-year, while supramax volumes plunged 27.5% to 32m tonnes.
“Additional cargoes from more distant origins could increase voyage demand even if total tonnes ease,” Signal observed.
Indonesia is emerging as the pivotal swing factor. MB Shipbrokers said production quotas and low river levels in Kalimantan are restricting the movement of coal from mines to loading ports just as Asian utilities prepare for winter. Buyers are responding by delaying some Indonesian cargoes and looking increasingly towards Australia and Russia. MB Shipbrokers said that switching away from Indonesia to those longer-haul suppliers could support tonne-mile demand, particularly for panamax vessels.
Improving river conditions in October and November could subsequently release delayed Indonesian cargoes, potentially creating another burst of activity later in the fourth quarter.
The geographical reshuffle is already evident in Banchero Costa data. Global seaborne coal exports reached 866.8m tonnes in January-August, up 1.7% year-on-year. Indonesian shipments fell 5.2%, but Australia increased 4.9%, Russia 10.1% and the US 9.4%.
On the import side the picture is equally fractured. Chinese coal arrivals were down 5.5% and India fell 8.1%, while South Korea jumped 16.9% and Japan increased 3.1%. Coal nevertheless remains shipping’s second-largest dry bulk commodity, accounting for roughly 23% of cargo volumes.
Breakwave Advisors noted in a new report that coal volumes have indeed declined notably year-over-year, but the American firm argued that current vessel market tightness is being dominated by geopolitical and operational supply constraints, limiting the freight impact of weaker underlying coal demand.
Coal will be firmly under the spotlight when Splash Singapore’s dry bulk panel takes the stage on Thursday. Moderated by Mandarin Shipping CEO Tim Huxley, the session will feature Arthur English of G2 Ocean, Jan Rindbo of Norden, Mark Jackson of the Baltic Exchange, Martin Fruergaard of Pacific Basin Shipping, and Stamatis Tsantanis of Seanergy Maritime Holdings and United Maritime. The panel will examine where dry bulk sits in the cycle, with China’s changing coal, steel and grain demand central to the discussion, alongside El Niño risks, fleet growth, freight resilience and the outlook for the coming 12 months.
