London’s metal traders might want to hold on to their hard hats.
Citi has turned more bullish on both copper and tin, arguing that the market is starting to look beyond short-term demand worries and towards a tighter supply picture.
In its latest Metal Matters note, the bank lifts its near-term copper forecast to $11,000 a tonne, up from $10,500, and sees the red metal averaging $12,000 by the middle of 2026.
That outlook is supported by what Citi calls “growing confidence” that prices can break through cyclical headwinds as the longer-term demand story reasserts itself.
A combination of energy transition spending, recovering industrial activity and slowing mine supply could, it says, bring copper to $12,000 sooner than expected.
Tin, the smaller cousin in the industrial metals family, gets an equally upbeat assessment.
Citi now targets $40,000 a tonne, also by 2026, citing the same blend of structural and cyclical supports. Demand from electronics and renewables continues to rise, while new supply remains thin on the ground.
For London-listed miners such as Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL), Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) and Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) (all heavily exposed to copper) the shift in tone will be welcome after a subdued summer for base metals.
A sustained move higher in copper prices would feed directly into stronger earnings and cash flow, especially for those with low-cost Latin American production.
Tin’s rebound could also provide a tailwind for smaller producers and traders on the London Metal Exchange, which has struggled with low liquidity since 2022’s market turmoil.
Citi’s call adds to a growing sense that industrial metals are on firmer footing as the global economy steadies and the supply side tightens.
Whether that translates into a full-blown rally remains to be seen, but the bank’s message is clear: both copper and tin look poised for a stronger finish to the decade.
