Copper climbed to fresh records in London trading, edging toward $13,000 (C$17,800) per tonne as tariff risk pulled metal into the United States just as mine disruptions and low inventories squeezed the rest of the market.
LME copper touched $12,742 a tonne overnight before easing to about $12,421, still up 39% this year, SP Angel analyst John Meyer said Monday in a note. Comex futures fell 2.5% after rallying about 6% in the prior session, leaving U.S. prices at a premium to London.
The widening gap matters because it is reshaping trade flows. Tariff worries have encouraged buyers to front-load shipments into the U.S., Meyer said, helping draw about 400,000 tonnes into Comex warehouses and tightening availability in high-demand Asian regions.
Copper is mining’s clearest “real economy” bellwether. Sustained prices near records can speed up project timelines and permitting pressure, lift scrap supply and force manufacturers to test substitution, often with aluminium, though many electrical and industrial uses have few workable alternatives.
The rally has built through a volatile year in which traders and manufacturers have treated copper as both a growth proxy and a hedge against policy disruption. The latest surge to a mix of potential U.S. tariffs, front-loaded imports and mine outages that have tightened supply even as demand has softened in China.
Disruption timing
Mine disruptions across the Americas, Africa and Asia have hit at the same time governments ramp up spending on power grids, electrification and renewables, all of which are copper-intensive. Investors have also added demand expectations tied to data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Macro signals have supported the move, too, Reuters reported.
A strong U.S. gross domestic product reading last week improved optimism about global growth into 2026, Meyer said, while easing financing conditions have helped the broader risk tone. A weaker U.S. dollar has been another tailwind, with the dollar index down 9.3% year to date, according to London-based SP Angel.
Copper’s strength has also pulled other base metals higher. Aluminium is up about 16% year to date, zinc about 3% and lead about 2.2%, Meyer said, suggesting investors are leaning into the broader industrial-metals complex, not just one idiosyncratic squeeze.
Still, there are limits to how long prices can run without demand paying a price. High copper prices typically draw more scrap into the market and push manufacturers to redesign products to use less copper where feasible. Substitution into aluminium can blunt demand at the margin, but only in applications where performance and safety standards allow it.
Chinese demand
China remains the key swing factor. The country accounts for roughly half of global copper consumption and a sustained slowdown there could test how much of the current rally is driven by physical tightness versus trade and policy hedging.
Longer term, the bull case continues to centre on looming deficits. BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook 2025 forecasts energy-transition copper demand could triple by 2045, pushing the market into deficit as early as 2026. The firm has also warned disruptions in major producing countries and a thin project pipeline could widen shortages materially over time without major investment in new mines and recycling.
The price action is also highlighting a structural vulnerability beyond the mine gate. Limited processing capacity in key mining regions increases reliance on offshore refining and adds geopolitical risk, Brendan Smith, chief executive of SiTration, told Reuters.
Gold eased to about $4,468 per oz., while silver pulled back after briefly jumping to $83 per oz. in thin holiday trading, Meyer said.
