Bank of America (BofA) has raised its copper price forecasts, pointing to widespread mine disruptions and steady demand as the metal tightens across global markets.
The bank now expects copper to average $11,313 per tonne in 2026, an 11% upgrade from its prior estimate, and $13,501 in 2027, up 12.5%. Strategists forecast a peak of $15,000 per tonne ($6.80 per pound).
Supply squeeze deepens
BofA analysts flagged ongoing setbacks at some of the world’s largest mines, including Grasberg in Indonesia, El Teniente in Chile and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Additional pressure stems from delays at Teck Resources’ (TSX: TECK.A TECK.B, NYSE: TECK) Quebrada Blanca II project in Chile and the indefinite suspension of First Quantum’s (TSX: FM) Cobre Panamá.
At the same time, treatment and refining charges have fallen sharply, underscoring the shortage of raw material. While overcapacity in China’s smelting sector has weighed on processing margins, analysts stressed the underlying issue is insufficient mine supply.
Resilient demand
Despite the supply headwinds, demand has remained robust. Copper consumption in China continues to be underpinned by rising grid investments tied to renewable energy and AI-related infrastructure. In Europe, demand is showing early signs of recovery after a prolonged slump.
On the inventory front, stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange remain exceptionally low, raising the risk of short squeezes if consumption accelerates further.
BofA expects copper to enter a structural bull phase. The bank emphasized that spare tonnages have already been diverted to the United States, leaving the market vulnerable to sharp price spikes.
On Monday morning, three-month copper futures traded at $10,643 per tonne ($4.84 per lb.) on the CME, up 1.4% on the day, then fell slightly to $4.82 per pound on Tuesday.
