The Association of Energy, Mineral, and Coal Suppliers of Indonesia (Aspebindo) revealed that the decline in coal exports during the first half of this year was due to reduced demand from the main importers, China and India.
“The decrease in demand is driven by increased domestic coal production in China and India,” Aspebindo Vice Chair Fathul Nugroho wrote in a statement on Sunday, August 10, 2025.
According to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report, China has increased its coal production significantly as part of its national energy resilience strategy.
India has also increased its production. He mentioned that the Indian Coal Ministry announced that domestic coal production reached a record high throughout 2024–2025. This surplus reduces India’s import dependence, according to Fathul.
Another challenge comes from Russia, which often offers more competitive coal prices in the Asian market. Meanwhile, Australia, the main producer, is attempting to capture market share as well.
In addition to increased production being the main cause of the export decline, Fathul stated that weakening international coal reference prices had a similar effect.
He mentioned that global coal prices, including the Indonesian Coal Index (ICI), dropped by about 20 percent annually until July 1, 2025. “For example, ICI 4, which represents 4,200 GAR coal, has also experienced a significant downward trend,” he said. He stated that the ICI 4 price was around US$40.68 per ton at the beginning of July 2025, according to Argus Coalindo data.
The decrease in commodity prices has led many exporters to withhold sales to avoid losses. However, Fathul stated that the ICI 4 price has begun to decline and has experienced slight rebounds over the past four weeks.
At the beginning of August 2025, the ICI 4 value was around US$41.92 per ton. According to Fathul, this indicates that the price has reached the support line. “It is strongly suspected to be the cost price for most producers,” Fathul said.
He stated that, according to data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the volume of coal exports in the first half of this year was 185.98 million tons, which is a 6.13 percent decrease compared to the same period last year.
He hopes the upward trend in international coal reference prices will continue. He hopes that the ICI 4 value will rise by 10 to 20 percent, reaching a range of $45 to $48 per ton by the end of the year. “This will certainly send a positive price signal to exporters,” he said.
Stable and profitable coal prices are believed to motivate producers to increase export volumes. He projected that coal export volumes would increase again unless there are drastic changes in global market conditions.
