Indonesia’s decision to cut nickel ore mining quotas this year has boosted LME nickel prices from approximately US$ 15 300 per tonne in the Autumn to US$ 18 000 and beyond in the New Year.
Although the mid-February rate had fallen below US$ 17 000, the overall surge is highlighted in BIR’s latest Mirror report on the stainless steel sector. Authors Vegas Yang and Mahiar R. Patel point out that Indonesia’s mineable quotas for 2026 of around 250 million wet metric tonnes (wmt) are a sharp decline from 379 million wmt in 2025.
The drop has driven a strong rally in the stainless steel scrap market. ‘In addition, heightened clarity around global tariffs and rising raw material costs has led to higher prices for finished stainless products,’ they write.
Policy change
The Mirror also notes that China has introduced export controls on stainless steel products, with overseas shipments of stainless coils, flats and long products requiring government approval.
‘This policy change, combined with Indonesia’s unexpected nickel ore quota reduction, has triggered a rush among Chinese stainless mills to secure raw materials, particularly stainless scrap and NPI.’
Several mills are said to have brought forward furnace maintenance schedules to avoid higher raw material costs in the near term.
‘As a result of these developments, Chinese stainless steel spot prices have increased significantly from around RMB 12 000 per tonne to approximately RMB 14 650.’
Indian pause
In India, Yang and Patel point out, demand for imported stainless steel scrap has dropped significantly and mills are adopting a wait-and-watch approach. ‘The troubling fact is that many stainless mills were dependant on the USA as an outlet for their finished goods but tariffs have now stopped this,’ they say.
‘Indian mills have switched to other markets, including Europe, although there is still plenty of uncertainty over the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Boarder Adjustment Mechanism on 1 January. The quota system in the EU is also a deterrent for stainless steel finished goods exporters from India.’
Although Indian stainless steel scrap imports dipped in January, they had surged 21% during 2025 to reach 1.47 million tonnes. India’s stainless steel production has grown 14% year-on-year to reach 4.27 million tonnes.
