A global rush to secure strategic metals is taking on new urgency ahead of a possible meeting of the US and Chinese leaders this month, with rare-earth elements now trading outside China at enormous multiples of their domestic value.
Export curbs imposed by China – which dominates the supply chain for a host of critical minerals – are limiting the availability of products used in everything from aerospace and defense to semiconductors and magnets for electric vehicles. From the US to Japan, manufacturers are feeling the squeeze.
Washington has urged Beijing to make good on commitments agreed as part of a trade truce last year, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer using a recent video call with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to emphasize the importance of China taking “concrete actions” to implement pledges on commodities including rare earths.
His comments – along with “serious concerns” raised by China on the same call – highlight the precarious nature of trade relations between the world’s two biggest economies. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet next week at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in the Chinese city of Shenzhen.
The scarcity of some strategic minerals outside China is reflected in prices. Yttrium, used in electronics and turbines, is a staggering 125 times more expensive in Europe than in China, according to price reporting agency Argus Media. A ton of the metal costs about $1.15 million compared with just $9,144 in China, where supplies remain ample.
Dysprosium and terbium, used in powerful magnets essential for high-tech manufacturing, are 20 times and eight times costlier than in the domestic Chinese market, respectively. Overseas buyers of gallium can expect to pay 12 times more. Before the curbs, global prices were only marginally higher.
“I wouldn’t really call it a panic, but I think it is something that has been boiling up for the past 18 months,” said Chi Hin Ling, head of metals pricing for Asia at Argus. “People are now scrambling a bit for material.”
Limited alternatives
President Xi rolled out export controls on rare earths last year, adding to curbs already in place on other minor metals. The move proved especially powerful as Beijing accounts for the lion’s share of mining and processing, handing it enormous leverage.
Under the truce agreed in October 2025 – which is due to expire roughly two months from now – the US secured flows of critical minerals. But Greer, the trade representative, has repeatedly said that America isn’t getting rare earths at the expected volume and pace.
The Trump administration has led a global push to shore up non-Chinese supplies, lending its backing to domestic mining projects as well as developments in countries including Australia. But for many products, finding alternatives will take years given the timelines and investments required.
“Within the next year or two, really there is very limited ex-China supply which is going to be available,” said David Merriman, research director at Project Blue, a consultancy specializing in critical minerals. “We’re probably sat with quite a significant delta between Chinese domestic pricing and ex-China pricing for at least the next couple of years.”
Yttrium, with its massive disparity between domestic and export prices, is one of seven niche metals placed under Beijing’s export controls in April 2025, and has a range of critical uses in the semiconductor industry. In addition, it provides an essential, protective coating on the huge blades in gas-power and jet-engine turbines.
China’s total exports of yttrium oxide are running at about two-fifths of the average level for 2023-2024. Almost none has been exported to Japan this year, and shipments to the US are about 70% lower than before 2025.
“The challenge for manufacturers outside China isn’t simply what the material costs – it’s whether they can secure reliable supplies,” said Ramón Barúa, chief executive officer at Aclara Resources Inc., which is developing rare-earth projects in Chile and Brazil and recently added high-purity yttrium oxide to its downstream processing plans, alongside dysprosium and terbium.
There are virtually no other mined sources of yttrium outside China, with Australian producer Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. set to begin production at its growing Malaysian plant only from 2028.
Barúa said material currently available outside China was likely accumulated before the export restrictions were introduced. A key unknown is how much may still be sitting in stockpiles, possibly being held back by traders in anticipation of even higher prices.
Ling from Argus added that global stockpiles of critical minerals weren’t transparent. “We always think the market is quite thin,” he said. “Then, all of a sudden, someone will be like: ‘Oh hang on, actually I’ve got about 100 tons left in my warehouse – but I’m going to sell it to you for $1 million a ton.’”
