Global tin prices will likely rule firm for the remainder of the year on demand from the artificial intelligence (AI) and electronics sectors, with tight inventories complicating the picture further, analysts say.

“…we expect prices to remain supported by continued supply issues in the face of steady demand from the semiconductor industry, keeping markets on edge,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

“Dwindling LME stocks, bullish investor positioning, and a tight concentrate market, especially in China, have supported prices,” said Tom Langston, senior research analyst with the International Tin Association (ITA).

“LME stocks remain critically low, keeping the market highly sensitive to shocks. While supply from Myanmar is resuming, liquidity remains thin and positioning has turned more optimistic,” said Sucden Financial.

Price outlook

BMI said it has raised its annual average tin price forecast for 2025 to $33,000 a tonne from $32,000/tonne previously. Sucden Financial pegged tin prices in the third quarter to rule between $32,000 and $35,000.

Three-month futures prices of tin, used as solder in electronics, on the London Metal Exchange are ruling at $33,256 a tonne, down 9.5 per cent from the three-month high of $35,100 registered on July 23.

Langston said tin prices have remained strong, averaging above $35,500 in July. However, prices have declined on reports that mining permits in Myanmar’s Wa province have finally been issued. “This comes on top of  the recent easing of major supply disruptions in the DR Congo and Indonesia, where export strength is expected to hold steady,” he said.

Pointing to an ITA statement, BMI said several operators at Man Maw have reportedly secured three-year mining permits in the Wa province. Myanmar suspended mining in the province in August 2023. Though the ban was lifted in March 2025, permits are being issued now only.

Myanmar’s significance

BMI said: “…we have adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach, as news of a resumption of tin mining at the Wa state have circulated in the markets for months without actually materialising.”

For instance, though authorities declared in March that tin mining could resume, further talks were postponed in April  as a result of an earthquake in the region

Myanmar is the world’s third-largest tin producer, and, according to USGS data, it is estimated to have the third-largest reserves in the world, at 700,000 tonnes or 15 per cent of total global reserves, after China and Indonesia (800,000 tonnes and 720,000 tonnes respectively).

Langston said tin is under scrutiny of the US administration, as it falls within the scope of an ongoing Section 232 investigation into critical minerals. “Imports of refined tin into the US are already nearly double compared to the same period last year,” he said.

Indonesia exports recover

Sucden Financial said though early signs of supply normalisation are emerging, tin’s inventory position remains exceptionally tight by historical standards, with LME stocks still well below long-term averages.

“The combination of very low visible inventories and growing speculative interest is likely to keep upward price risks elevated through the remainder of Q3,” it said.

BMI said that due to a persistent shortage of tin concentrates, operating rates at China-based smelters, especially in Yunnan and Jiangxi, are roughly half of full capacity in July 2025.

Indonesian tin exports have recovered since February 2025, with refined tin exports reaching 5.8 million tonnes in March, which is a 49.8 per cent year-on-year rise.

Key dynamics emerging

“Over January-May 2025, Indonesia exported 21,600 tonnes of tin ingots, up 110 per cent year-on-year, but still down 10 per cent compared with the same period in 2023,” it said.

With the return of Indonesian exports and a possible resumption of exports from Myanmar, prices will likely remain capped in 2026, it said.

Langston said easing supply pressures and potential tariff headwinds are emerging as key dynamics heading into the second half of the year.

Sucden Financial said with the market already finely balanced, sharp upward moves remain possible if physical supply tightens once again or if strategic demand accelerates more quickly than expected.

On the demand side, BMI said economic activity is showing resilience globally, supported by demand for AI and electronics sectors. Global tin stocks remain low, and this exposes the tin market to bouts of volatility.