Stabilised global markets hold the key to continued minerals and metals price growth in 2026, according to a new report by BMI.
The report said prices will likely edge higher as trade tensions and tariff uncertainties subside, with robust demand expected for critical mineral sectors linked to the transition to net zero and Western nations’ supply chain security.
BMI forecasts gold prices will average higher in 2026 compared to 2025, though it expects prices to ease later in the year as monetary-easing policies lose momentum, particularly as the US Fed eventually stops cutting rates.
Industrial policy will continue to play a key role as critical minerals deals begin to materialise, the report said, with most activity centred around the EU and US.
“Governments will push a twin-track strategy: scaling domestic capacity while locking in overseas supply via investment and strategic partnerships,” the report said.
The analysis also anticipates pushback from China’s government as Western nations attempt to diversify supply chains away from reliance on China.
“Mainland China will double down on industrial policy to cement its dominance across critical mineral value chains. Measures include accelerated upstream exploration, targeted capacity expansion in critical minerals, and greener manufacturing practices,” the report said.
“China will deepen partnerships with resource-rich economies via clearer outbound-investment frameworks, as recent tariffs and rare earth export curbs show protectionist leverage remains central.”
The surge in M&A activity seen during 2025 is also expected to continue as companies consolidate assets, operations and resources around critical minerals, including copper, lithium and rare earths.
“Large-scale capex projects still remain in focus, yet risk-averse developments are coming to the forefront,” the report said.
“Rio Tinto’s completion of the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium in March 2025, alongside Pilbara Minerals’ earlier acquisition of Latin Resources in February 2025, further reinforces ongoing industry consolidation within the critical minerals space.”
Frontier and emerging markets have also been earmarked for increased investment activity.
“While resource nationalism has been a key concern for a while, we believe governments and local populations in regions including Africa now have more awareness and bargaining power over their mineral resources,” the report said.
“This will enable more progress to be made on mineral beneficiation compared to previous years, with global mining investors having little choice but to comply with mineral policy changes in these jurisdictions.”
Metals and mining projects are also expected to benefit from partnerships with tech, automotive and aerospace companies in 2026 — including through offtake agreements — as manufacturers look to get ahead of supply bottlenecks in key growth sectors such as AI, robotics and defence.
