The World Gold Council (WGC) has released its 2026 outlook following a remarkable year for gold, which set more than 50 all-time highs and rose over 60 per cent in US dollars, marking its fourth-strongest annual return since 1971.
Two macro forces stood out as key drivers: “a supercharged geopolitical and geoeconomic environment” and a weaker US dollar.
Investor demand surged globally, while central banks continued their gold-buying spree, supporting the metal’s performance across regions.
The WGC’s gold return attribution model shows that geopolitical risk and US dollar weakness together contributed roughly 16 percentage points to gold’s year-to-date return, with price momentum and economic growth adding a further 19 points, highlighting a balanced set of drivers.
Looking ahead, markets are largely pricing in a stable outlook, but uncertainty remains. The WGC said there are three key scenarios for 2026.
- In a moderately bullish “shallow slip,” a mild slowdown, lower rates, a softer dollar, and rising risk aversion could lift gold 5–15 per cent.
- In a bullish “doom loop,” a deeper slowdown with falling yields and elevated geopolitical stress could push gold 15–30 per cent higher.
- Even under a bearish “reflation return,” stronger growth and a rising dollar would likely trigger only a modest 5–20 per cent dip.
The WGC said central bank demand and gold recycling could also influence prices.
Overall, the WGC said softer growth, accommodative policy and ongoing geopolitical risks are more likely to support gold than not.
The precious metal’s record-breaking run may just be getting started, with State Street Investment Management suggesting gold could soar as high as $US5000 an ounce by 2026.
In its Monthly Gold Monitor, the firm said the rally is part of a longer-term structural trend driven by persistent debt, resilient physical demand and a shifting monetary landscape.
