Citi said on Friday it expects copper to remain supported around $13,000 per metric ton, though the bank warned that risk-off sentiment from U.S.-Iran tensions could push prices lower.
The bank said physical dip-buying should keep prices above $12,000 per ton through the second quarter of 2026, even in a sharper risk sell-off scenario.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange reached a three-month high on Friday after Freeport-McMoRan reported a slight delay in production recovery at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, tightening supply expectations.
U.S. and Iranian forces clashed in the Gulf and the United Arab Emirates came under renewed attack, though President Donald Trump said a ceasefire was still holding despite the flare-up.
In its base case, Citi said headwinds from U.S. tariffs and inventory dynamics could bring copper prices down to $12,000 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2026.
The bank’s bull case sees the metal reaching $15,000 per metric ton by year-end if the Strait were to reopen and energy-transition demand gains renewed momentum.
