Chile’s copper commission Cochilco on Friday sharply lowered its forecast for Chilean copper production this year and forecast a milder-than-expected recovery for 2027.
The entity expects 2026 output to fall 8.4% versus a prior estimate of a 2.6% decline, before recovering next year with a 3% rise, slimmer than previously anticipated.
Cochilco estimates that Chilean copper production in 2026 will fall 8.4% to 4.94-million metric tons, versus an August estimate of 5.27-million tons.
It noted that BHP’s BHP.AX Escondida and Spence, along with state-run Codelco mines, account for more than 77% of Chile’s net decline.
Between January and September, Chile produced 3.63-million tons, down 8.5% from the same period in 2025.
The country needs to produce close to 434 000 tons per month in the fourth quarter to reach the full-year estimate, Cochilco said.
That amount would be 7.6% above average of what was produced this year through September.
In 2027, Cochilco expects production to recover 3% to 5.08-million tons, versus the August estimate of 5.55-million tons.
Lower ore grades, maintenance and disruptions have affected copper processing and recovery, Cochilco noted.
Cochilco also raised its forecast for average copper prices to $6.18/lb in 2026 and $5.95/lb in 2027, citing constrained mine supply and a refined copper market with little room to absorb production disruptions.
