Copper fell for a second day in New York on Thursday as data out of China shifted attention from the tariff-driven flows that carried prices to records this week to the state of demand on the ground in the metal’s biggest consumer.
Comex copper for September delivery declined 0.5% to $6.5645 a pound (about $14,470 a tonne) by late morning in New York, bringing the retreat from Wednesday’s record high of $6.7775 to just over 3%. The contract touched all-time peaks in three of the past four sessions before profit-taking set in ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole address by Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh.
In London, tightness shows little sign of easing: the LME’s official cash price climbed to $14,525 a tonne at Wednesday’s close, up $355 over the past week, and the premium over three-month metal, which collapsed when traders rushed metal into LME sheds earlier this month, has rebuilt to $189. Three-month copper settled at $14,336 on Wednesday, with stocks in the exchange’s warehouses down again at 237,475 tonnes.
Tariffs today, China tomorrow
Profits at China’s industrial firms rose 11.2% in July from a year earlier, slowing from June’s 15.1% pace to the weakest reading this year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. The details point to an uneven economy: electronics and raw materials producers accounted for more than 16 percentage points of the 17.6% growth in profits so far this year, while consumer-facing sectors lagged.
For copper bulls, the numbers are a reminder that this month’s surge has been powered less by end-use demand than by the reshuffling of metal ahead of US import duties (15% on refined copper from January, rising to 30% in 2028) that has pulled inventory into American warehouses at the expense of the rest of the world.
“Why would you deliver to the LME,” BNP Paribas head of metals strategy David Wilson asked clients this month, Bloomberg reported, when shipping into the US ahead of the deadline still pays. ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes pointed to the surge in LME warrant cancellations at the start of the week, metal booked for withdrawal from exchange sheds, which he told Reuters “stoked fresh concerns of supply shortages”.
Citi is not backing away: the bank maintained its $14,500-a-tonne zero-to-three-month and $15,000 year-end targets in late July, having turned bullish in June. “While demand growth remains tepid, supply is under much greater pressure,” Citi said in a note reported by Reuters, citing shrinking visible inventories outside the US, constrained mine supply and a soft scrap response to higher prices.
Southern Copper won’t stop
Copper equities mostly drifted lower with the metal on Thursday: Ivanhoe Mines fell 1.8%, First Quantum 1.4%, Zijin Mining 1.1% and Teck Resources 0.4% in New York by late morning, but the sector’s twin heavyweights kept climbing.
Southern Copper added another 2.1% to $218.23, extending a run that has seen the Grupo Mexico unit gain nearly 10% in a week and 21% in August, stretching its market value lead over Freeport-McMoRan to roughly $70 billion. Freeport itself edged up to $79.13, a fresh all-time high, and has climbed 11% over the past week.
Comex copper is up 16% in 2026 and about 47% over the past year.
