The global refined copper market is expected to shift to a surplus of 96 000 metric tons in 2026, reversing a previously forecast deficit of 150 000 tons, due to slower demand growth and increased secondary production, the International Copper Study Group said on Thursday.
The organization projected a surplus of 377 000 metric tons in 2027 but cautioned that geopolitical risks, including the war in the Middle East, and changes in trade flows could impact market balances.
Global refined copper usage is now expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, down from a prior estimate of 2.1%, and by 2% in 2027.
Chinese demand is projected to rise 1.9% in 2026, with growth of 1.3% anticipated in other regions, ICSG said, adding that consumption in the European Union and Japan would remain subdued, while Asia will continue to drive global growth.
Global refined copper production is forecast to expand 0.4% in 2026, constrained by limited concentrate availability, offset in part by higher secondary output, before accelerating by 3% in 2027 as concentrate production improves and new capacity is added.
Copper mine output is expected to grow 1.6% in 2026, revised down from 2.3%, due to slower growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, and Indonesia, as well as constraints at the Grasberg and Kamoa mines following problems in 2025.
Mine output is projected to increase by 2.3% in 2027, supported by new capacity ramp-ups, improved production in Chile and Zambia, and higher operating rates in Indonesia and the DRC.
