Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are forecast to rise to $422 billion in 2026-27, as growing investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and the energy transition supports demand for Australian resources.
The forecast comes from the September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ), with the 2026-27 estimate representing a $19 billion increase from the $403 billion recorded in 2025-26 and is $6 billion higher than the June 2026 REQ forecast.
The latest outlook has been shaped by the “conflict in the Middle East”, which the REQ said has disrupted energy commodity supply chains and lifted energy prices and input costs.
Export earnings are expected to decrease after 2026-27 as commodity prices normalise, global supply recovers and shipping disruptions ease, falling to $391 billion in 2027-28 and $379 billion in 2030-31 in nominal terms.
Federal resources minister Madeleine King said Australia’s diverse resource exports were continuing to support the economy amid uncertainty in global trade.
“In tough times for global trade, our resources industry is standing strong and continuing to reliably supply our world-class products to the world,” King said.
Iron ore is expected to remain Australia’s largest resource export by value, although earnings are forecast to decline from $123 billion in 2025-26 to $107 billion in 2026-27 and $79 billion in real terms by 2030-31.
Gold earnings are forecast to fall from almost $72 billion in 2025-26 to $68 billion in 2026–27, before reaching $61 billion in real terms in 2030–31.
Meanwhile, copper is expected to benefit from rising demand associated with electrification, electricity grid expansion and AI-related data centres. Copper export earnings are forecast to increase from $14 billion in 2025-26 to $19 billion in real terms by 2030-31.
Critical minerals are also expected to contribute more strongly to Australia’s export earnings, rising from about $17 billion in 2025-26 to $26 billion in 2026-27 before stabilising at $22 billion in real terms in 2030-31.
Lithium is forecast to account for more than half of critical minerals earnings, with Australian lithium export earnings expected to rise from $10 billion in 2025-26 to $17 billion in 2026-27 before easing to $15 billion in 2030-31.
The outlook also expects liquefied natural gas (LNG) export earnings to increase from $57 billion in 2025-26 to $70 billion in 2026-27 as higher prices offset broader market pressures.
The REQ warned that the forecasts remain highly uncertain, particularly around the timing of the reopening of major shipping routes and the repair and restart of damaged facilities in the Middle East.
Resources and energy exports account for two-thirds of Australia’s general merchandise exports, according to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
