Prices of an obscure metal used in everything from nuclear energy to aerospace and semiconductors are getting so high that the world’s biggest producer is considering boosting supply.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is revisiting plans to expand molybdenum output at its Climax mine in Colorado as supply challenges combine with growing demand. Prices are up more than 50% this year, with BMO Capital Markets forecasting a sixth consecutive annual market deficit in 2027.
“We’re very positive on the outlook for moly,” Chief Executive Officer Kathleen Quirk said Tuesday on a call with analysts, using the metal’s shortened name. “We do have some opportunities to expand primary at Climax. And so we’re kind of dusting off our old schedules.”
About 60% of global molybdenum supply is generated as a byproduct of copper mining, leaving output exposed to declining grades, investment constraints and project disruptions. Those challenges are raising the prospect of the first annual decline in copper-mine output since 2017.
A big part of the molybdenum supply squeeze lies more than 4,000 miles (6,440 kilometers) south of Colorado, in Chile, where operational setbacks have battered output of the red metal. Chile, the world’s biggest molybdenum producer after China last year, saw output slump 8% in the first half of 2026, slipping behind the US and level with Peru in the global rankings.
Canadian miner Centerra Gold Inc. is forecasting six to eight years of molybdenum market deficits, with CEO Paul Tomory saying last month that the silvery-gray metal was in “very high demand.” The company is aiming to restart its Thompson Creek molybdenum mine in Idaho by mid-2027 and eventually plans to bring its Endako mine in British Columbia back into production.
Molybdenum is prized for its ability to strengthen steel and other alloys while withstanding extreme heat and corrosion, making it difficult to replace in applications ranging from oil and gas pipelines and nuclear reactors to jet engines and rocket components. Tomory pointed to demand from pipelines, atomic and wind power, defense and aerospace, as well as growing use in semiconductors as a replacement for tungsten.
Demand grew at an annual average rate of 4.4% between 2020 and 2025 before jumping to 8.5% in the first half of this year, BMO said in a note. The bank expects tightness to persist into next year and sees risks to prices skewed to the upside.
The rally is already boosting returns for producers. Miner Southern Copper Corp.’s realized molybdenum price averaged $32.93 a pound in the third quarter, up about 36% from a year earlier, even as its production of the metal slipped 2%. Molybdenum accounted for about 12% of the company’s sales.
Bringing on enough new supply may prove difficult. China has historically expanded primary molybdenum output when shortages emerged, but BMO says resource depletion and environmental constraints have reduced the country’s ability to quickly lift production. Unlike other constrained metals such as tungsten and antimony, there are few obvious sources China could tap via imports without tightening availability elsewhere.
Freeport does have options. Besides raising production at Climax, its proposed expansion of the Bagdad copper mine in Arizona would add 10 million to 12 million pounds of annual molybdenum production. Still, CEO Quirk said boosting copper output remains Freeport’s priority. (By James Attwood)
